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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."